SPY: 399/409 BC
AMZN: 121/129 BC
AAPL: 165/176 BC
COST: 505/495 BP (this one I thought of doing a bear call because the RSI was already so high and last week the RSI was really high as well and it still went up, might’ve been a bad trade)
JNJ: 167.5/160 BP
Out of all these trades, Amazon is the only that won’t be profitable. But since the stock didn’t go higher than 129 (the short spread I believe) I won’t lose the full defined risk but only partial.
It would’ve been a great profitable week, but I think with the premiums I’ll end up either neutral or with a small loss of about -$300.
AMZN has earnings next week and I didn’t do much due diligence on whether they were expecting good earnings or not. Plus, with inflation (global inflation included) seeming to calm down (along with expected rate hikes) there is also a general bull market sentiment going on.
I’m reading this article, “Dow up nearly 600 points, stocks build on gains as earnings season picks up steam” and it’s saying that with so much pessimism, there might be an uptrend as a contrarian thought from it.
Inflation is at 9.1%
the US dollar index is at 107.21
crude oil is at 101.41 (higher than last week, I’ve also noticed prices going up)
US Treasury is at 3.012
mortgage rates about 4%-6%
unemployment rate 3.6%
The finviz heatmap has been more green lately, SPY, COST, AMZN, AAPL they have all gone up recently. However, with inflation going up, the US dollar index being high and crude oil going higher, plus the rate hike coming up, it’s my thesis that we’re still in a bear market.
Are talks of a coming recession just people being cautious?
retail report from last week showed a strong consumer spending, Fed might do a 100 basis point rate hike
Seems like a bull week so far with the good earnings but the stocks are already at a high RSI plus I think there’s still an overall bear sentiment.
Read this article on the housing market: https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/real-estate/housing-market-takes-another-punch-as-home-starts-fall?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
AAPL stock could start rising again according to this article:
TSLA and NFLX had earnings with the adjusted being better than the estimated.
I’m going to start going more bullish on my stocks starting next week. And paying closer attention to their expected earnings, maybe not even enter if they have earnings within two or three weeks to avoid any volatility.
The price of crude oil went down to 96 (Fri July 22). This has gotta be a great sign.
I’m reading this article:
And it’s saying that the economy is weakening, but with this being what the market expected, is it a good sign for the market?
Even tho, housing sales dropped, there are still a record amount of units under construction (1.68 million according to the article above).
Rate hikes in Europe as well to calm down inflation. Does global inflation affect our economy or is it only because we are seeing a rise in inflation?
I’m watching this video here:
And it’s saying that all these buyers are pushing up the market but that they’ll eventually sell out, so that it’s still a bear market until further notice.
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